‘Iran is trying to create a new normal in the region’

An analyst affiliated with the Atlantic Council think tank, stating that Iran has created a new normal in the region with its direct attack on Israel, called for the management of the situation by the United States.
William F. Wechsler, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, in assessing the regional developments, stated that as Iran carefully considered how and where to respond to Israel’s attack in Damascus, the United States and Israel must take action to manage the situation after Iran’s response.

He believes that Tehran’s goal was clearly to prevent Israel from targeting its diplomatic facilities again, as they were safe places for diplomats and experts to use.
Wechsler stated, “Iran, through its attack, operationally sent an undeniable message that it does not want to escalate the situation further and ignite a real war in the region. With this goal in mind, Tehran chose long-range attacks that were defensible and emphasized in its messages for the United States to stay out of the issue.”

The American think tank report claimed that the current situation has ended in Iran’s favor after October 7. In the current regional circumstances, Iran’s nuclear program has moved out of the spotlight, continues to progress unhindered, and has even crossed points that were previously deemed unacceptable. In addition, Iran has so far prevented any real threat to Hezbollah, which serves as a bulwark against Israel’s attack on its nuclear infrastructure.

He added that Iran has created a new precedent by directly attacking Israel, and is now capable of doing so directly from Iranian soil. Therefore, Iran has created a key point, something it has gradually strengthened over the decades.
The report emphasized that Iran has normalized its assistance to its proxies, as it has been doing in Yemen for some time, and has gained new capabilities through Yemen’s Ansarullah movement to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait whenever it wants. Tehran has also demonstrated its ability to threaten Israelis through Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The writer of the report stressed that Tehran has successfully created a norm and precedent in terms of directly attacking Israelis, which could be valuable for Iran if it acquires nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran has shown both the limitations of the United States and its own reliable capabilities. While Washington has been committed to Israel’s security for decades, the direct threat to Israel now comes without a military response from the United States.
In another part of the report, it is mentioned that Iran’s recent actions have alerted the Arab states in the Persian Gulf not to rely on the unreliable and ineffective security umbrella of the United States.

The Atlantic Council expert concluded by stating that “Iran’s goals were rational and calculated, and Tehran played with an understanding of its strengths and the weaknesses of its adversaries.”